Houdini Wagers

The track record

Straight from cfb_ledger.csv and mlb_ledger.csv — the same files the daily brief writes to. Rebuilt September 11, 2026. Win% and ROI exclude pushes; ROI is units won per unit risked. MLB figures are the published card only; picks the model flags as implausible are tracked separately and left out here.

MLB

Record
50–37–4
87 graded · 5 pending
Units
+7.92
flat 1u stakes
ROI
+9.1%
pushes excluded
CLV
+0.57
+0.57 avg · 75% beat the close · 81 tracked · leading indicator
MLB — by market
SegmentW–LWin %UnitsROIPending
ML9–756%+1.79+11.2%2
Spread27–1368%+9.73+24.3%1
Total14–17–445%-3.60-11.6%2
MLB — by claimed edge (does bigger edge win more?)
Claimed edgePicksW–LWin %Units
0-4%—
4-6%3825–1268%+9.18
6-8%4723–21–252%+0.99
8-10%51–3–125%-2.12
10-15%21–1–150%-0.13
15%+—
MLB — by month
MonthW–LWin %UnitsRunningPending
Aug 20269–853%-0.98-0.98
Sep 202641–29–459%+8.90+7.925

College Football

Record
27–24
51 graded · 3 pending
Units
+0.68
flat 1u stakes
ROI
+1.3%
pushes excluded
CLV
+0.71
+0.71 avg · 45% beat the close · 40 tracked · still early
College Football — by market
SegmentW–LWin %UnitsROIPending
Spread11–955%-0.05-0.3%3
Total16–1552%+0.73+2.4%
College Football — by claimed edge (does bigger edge win more?)
Claimed edgePicksW–LWin %Units
0-3%—
3-5%22–0100%+1.90
5-7%—
7-10%31–233%-1.15
10-15%124–833%-5.31
15%+11–0100%+0.93
College Football — by month
MonthW–LWin %UnitsRunningPending
Aug 202612–957%+1.55+1.553
Sep 202615–1550%-0.87+0.68

Parlays

A 3, 4 and 5-leg card each day, built from that day's published picks — highest model win probability first, one leg per game. Flat one unit each.

MLB parlays · flat 1u each
CardW–LHit %UnitsPending
3-leg0–10%-1.001
4-leg0–10%-1.001
5-leg0–10%-1.00
All parlays0–30%-3.002