Every pick is published before first pitch or kickoff. Every result is graded from the final score. The track record on this page rebuilds itself every morning — nothing is edited after the fact.
Read this first. The season is only a few weeks old, so the win-loss and ROI numbers are small samples and will bounce around. Closing-line value — whether the market moves toward our number after we post — is the earliest honest signal that a model is doing something real, which is why it sits up here too.
MLB projects each lineup's run expectation from season and recent form against the opposing starter's RA9, the bullpen, park and weather, then reads the moneyline, run line and total off one run distribution. College football blends talent, SP+, EPA and returning production into a projected margin and total.
Flat one-unit stakes on every play. A pick is only published if the model's edge clears a set threshold and the projection passes an implausibility guard — we never publish a number we would not bet ourselves.
The full ledger is public. Results are graded automatically from final scores. We track closing-line value on every pick and run a calibration check — do the bigger claimed edges actually win more? — out in the open.
Every morning: the day's model card for CFB and MLB — picks, the number behind each one, and the running record. No hype, no locks.
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