Houdini Wagers - Picks & Betting Analytics

The track record

Straight from cfb_ledger.csv and mlb_ledger.csv — the same files the daily brief writes to. Rebuilt October 28, 2026. Win% and ROI exclude pushes; ROI is units won per unit risked. MLB figures are the published card only; picks the model flags as implausible are tracked separately and left out here.

Units over time

The running total of units won since each model's first graded pick, one point per day. Every line ends at the figure shown in its own section below.

Cumulative units, flat 1-unit stakes. Parlays are their own line and are not part of “All picks”.
  • All picks (MLB + CFB) +6.53u
  • MLB +5.32u
  • College football +1.21u
  • Parlays (all cards) +49.08u
Cumulative units won, by dateRunning total from August 28 to October 19, 2026. All picks (MLB + CFB) +6.53 units; MLB +5.32 units; College football +1.21 units; Parlays (all cards) +49.08 units.−200+20+40+60+80Sep 1Sep 15Oct 1Oct 15MLB · Aug 30: +0.09uMLB · Aug 31: -0.98uMLB · Sep 1: +0.87uMLB · Sep 2: +3.61uMLB · Sep 3: +4.20uMLB · Sep 4: +9.61uMLB · Sep 5: +13.04uMLB · Sep 6: +6.74uMLB · Sep 7: +9.75uMLB · Sep 8: +8.28uMLB · Sep 9: +7.04uMLB · Sep 10: +4.85uMLB · Sep 11: +4.37uMLB · Sep 12: +0.75uMLB · Sep 13: -0.85uMLB · Sep 14: +2.95uMLB · Sep 16: +2.14uMLB · Sep 17: +1.12uMLB · Sep 18: +3.00uMLB · Sep 19: +4.00uMLB · Sep 20: -2.34uMLB · Sep 21: -1.80uMLB · Sep 22: -0.30uMLB · Sep 23: +2.79uMLB · Sep 24: +0.21uMLB · Sep 25: +2.31uMLB · Sep 26: -0.18uMLB · Sep 27: +3.14uMLB · Sep 29: +5.06uMLB · Sep 30: +5.13uMLB · Oct 3: +6.28uMLB · Oct 4: +7.19uMLB · Oct 5: +8.32uMLB · Oct 7: +6.32uMLB · Oct 8: +5.32uMLB · Oct 10: +3.32uMLB · Oct 12: +2.99uMLB · Oct 13: +1.99uMLB · Oct 14: +3.75uMLB · Oct 15: +4.36uMLB · Oct 17: +5.27uMLB · Oct 18: +4.27uMLB · Oct 19: +5.32uCollege football · Aug 29: +1.55uCollege football · Sep 3: +3.13uCollege football · Sep 4: +2.03uCollege football · Sep 5: -2.08uCollege football · Sep 6: +0.68uCollege football · Sep 11: -2.32uCollege football · Sep 12: +0.32uCollege football · Sep 18: +0.32uCollege football · Sep 19: +7.52uCollege football · Sep 24: +10.05uCollege football · Sep 25: +7.96uCollege football · Sep 26: +3.86uCollege football · Oct 1: +3.77uCollege football · Oct 3: +2.61uCollege football · Oct 7: +4.19uCollege football · Oct 8: +3.02uCollege football · Oct 9: +7.70uCollege football · Oct 10: +9.10uCollege football · Oct 13: +8.77uCollege football · Oct 15: +6.77uCollege football · Oct 16: +6.64uCollege football · Oct 17: +1.21uParlays (all cards) · Sep 11: -5.00uParlays (all cards) · Sep 12: -10.00uParlays (all cards) · Sep 13: -14.00uParlays (all cards) · Sep 14: +27.92uParlays (all cards) · Sep 15: +27.82uParlays (all cards) · Sep 16: +25.82uParlays (all cards) · Sep 17: +21.82uParlays (all cards) · Sep 18: +20.59uParlays (all cards) · Sep 19: +49.47uParlays (all cards) · Sep 20: +44.47uParlays (all cards) · Sep 22: +43.88uParlays (all cards) · Sep 23: +37.88uParlays (all cards) · Sep 24: +51.07uParlays (all cards) · Sep 25: +44.07uParlays (all cards) · Sep 26: +35.07uParlays (all cards) · Sep 27: +37.11uParlays (all cards) · Sep 29: +35.11uParlays (all cards) · Sep 30: +33.11uParlays (all cards) · Oct 3: +27.11uParlays (all cards) · Oct 7: +24.11uParlays (all cards) · Oct 8: +21.11uParlays (all cards) · Oct 9: +63.08uParlays (all cards) · Oct 10: +57.08uParlays (all cards) · Oct 13: +56.08uParlays (all cards) · Oct 16: +55.08uParlays (all cards) · Oct 17: +49.08uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Aug 29: +1.55uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Aug 30: +1.64uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Aug 31: +0.57uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Sep 1: +2.42uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Sep 2: +5.16uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Sep 3: +7.33uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Sep 4: +11.64uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Sep 5: +10.96uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Sep 6: +7.42uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Sep 7: +10.43uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Sep 8: +8.96uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Sep 9: +7.72uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Sep 10: +5.53uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Sep 11: +2.05uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Sep 12: +1.07uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Sep 13: -0.53uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Sep 14: +3.27uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Sep 16: +2.46uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Sep 17: +1.44uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Sep 18: +3.32uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Sep 19: +11.52uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Sep 20: +5.18uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Sep 21: +5.72uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Sep 22: +7.22uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Sep 23: +10.31uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Sep 24: +10.26uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Sep 25: +10.27uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Sep 26: +3.68uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Sep 27: +7.00uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Sep 29: +8.92uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Sep 30: +8.99uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Oct 1: +8.90uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Oct 3: +8.89uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Oct 4: +9.80uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Oct 5: +10.93uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Oct 7: +10.51uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Oct 8: +8.34uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Oct 9: +13.02uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Oct 10: +12.42uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Oct 12: +12.09uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Oct 13: +10.76uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Oct 14: +12.52uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Oct 15: +11.13uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Oct 16: +11.00uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Oct 17: +6.48uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Oct 18: +5.48uAll picks (MLB + CFB) · Oct 19: +6.53uCumulative units won, by dateRunning total from August 28 to October 19, 2026. All picks (MLB + CFB) +6.53 units; MLB +5.32 units; College football +1.21 units; Parlays (all cards) +49.08 units.−200+20+40+60+80Sep 1Oct 1
Show the numbers behind the chart
Cumulative units, end of each day
DateAll picks (MLB + CFB)MLBCollege footballParlays (all cards)
Aug 29+1.55+0.00+1.55
Aug 30+1.64+0.09+1.55
Aug 31+0.57-0.98+1.55
Sep 1+2.42+0.87+1.55
Sep 2+5.16+3.61+1.55
Sep 3+7.33+4.20+3.13
Sep 4+11.64+9.61+2.03
Sep 5+10.96+13.04-2.08
Sep 6+7.42+6.74+0.68
Sep 7+10.43+9.75+0.68
Sep 8+8.96+8.28+0.68
Sep 9+7.72+7.04+0.68
Sep 10+5.53+4.85+0.68+0.00
Sep 11+2.05+4.37-2.32-5.00
Sep 12+1.07+0.75+0.32-10.00
Sep 13-0.53-0.85+0.32-14.00
Sep 14+3.27+2.95+0.32+27.92
Sep 15+3.27+2.95+0.32+27.82
Sep 16+2.46+2.14+0.32+25.82
Sep 17+1.44+1.12+0.32+21.82
Sep 18+3.32+3.00+0.32+20.59
Sep 19+11.52+4.00+7.52+49.47
Sep 20+5.18-2.34+7.52+44.47
Sep 21+5.72-1.80+7.52+44.47
Sep 22+7.22-0.30+7.52+43.88
Sep 23+10.31+2.79+7.52+37.88
Sep 24+10.26+0.21+10.05+51.07
Sep 25+10.27+2.31+7.96+44.07
Sep 26+3.68-0.18+3.86+35.07
Sep 27+7.00+3.14+3.86+37.11
Sep 29+8.92+5.06+3.86+35.11
Sep 30+8.99+5.13+3.86+33.11
Oct 1+8.90+5.13+3.77+33.11
Oct 3+8.89+6.28+2.61+27.11
Oct 4+9.80+7.19+2.61+27.11
Oct 5+10.93+8.32+2.61+27.11
Oct 7+10.51+6.32+4.19+24.11
Oct 8+8.34+5.32+3.02+21.11
Oct 9+13.02+5.32+7.70+63.08
Oct 10+12.42+3.32+9.10+57.08
Oct 12+12.09+2.99+9.10+57.08
Oct 13+10.76+1.99+8.77+56.08
Oct 14+12.52+3.75+8.77+56.08
Oct 15+11.13+4.36+6.77+56.08
Oct 16+11.00+4.36+6.64+55.08
Oct 17+6.48+5.27+1.21+49.08
Oct 18+5.48+4.27+1.21+49.08
Oct 19+6.53+5.32+1.21+49.08

MLB

Record
135–118–6
253 graded · 2 pending
Units
+5.32
flat 1u stakes
ROI
+2.1%
pushes excluded
CLV
+0.19
+0.19 avg · 35% beat the close · 26 tracked · still early
MLB — by market
SegmentW–LWin %UnitsROIPending
ML22–2448%-2.99-6.5%
Spread60–3961%+12.77+12.9%
Total53–55–649%-4.46-4.1%2
MLB — by claimed edge (does bigger edge win more?)
Claimed edgePicksW–LWin %Units
0-4%—
4-6%10049–5049%-6.86
6-8%11168–43–361%+20.29
8-10%2310–13–143%-3.65
10-15%218–12–240%-4.46
15%+—
MLB — by month
MonthW–LWin %UnitsRunningPending
Aug 20269–853%-0.98-0.98
Sep 2026115–100–553%+6.11+5.131
Oct 202611–10–152%+0.19+5.321

College Football

Record
96–85–3
181 graded · 5 pending
Units
+1.21
flat 1u stakes
ROI
+0.7%
pushes excluded
CLV
-0.00
-0.00 avg · 37% beat the close · 99 tracked · still early
College Football — by market
SegmentW–LWin %UnitsROIPending
Spread61–55–353%-0.54-0.5%4
Moneyline9–1047%-3.31-17.4%1
Total26–2057%+5.07+11.0%
College Football — by claimed edge (does bigger edge win more?)
Claimed edgePicksW–LWin %Units
0-3%10–10%-1.00
3-5%2413–11–154%+0.79
5-7%2613–1252%-1.12
7-10%3816–2143%-6.57
10-15%5329–24–255%+1.41
15%+86–275%+3.38
College Football — by month
MonthW–LWin %UnitsRunningPending
Aug 202612–957%+1.55+1.553
Sep 202636–31–154%+2.32+3.86
Oct 202648–45–252%-2.65+1.212

Parlays

Every parlay card the model publishes, rolled into one cumulative record: each sport's own daily 3, 4 and 5-leg card, plus the combined MLB+CFB card that pools that day's legs across both sports. Legs are that day's published picks, or on some games a safer alternate line at real edge, highest model win probability first, one leg per game. Flat one unit each.

All Houdini parlays · flat 1u each
CardW–LHit %UnitsPending
3-leg9–3819%+3.03
4-leg5–3612%+6.57
5-leg4–3012%+39.48
All parlays18–10415%+49.08

Round robins

The combined MLB+CFB brief adds two round robins under its parlays, built from the parlays' own legs: a 5-pick (every 3- and 4-leg ticket of the 5-leg card) and a 7-pick (those five plus the next two best legs, every 5- and 6-leg ticket). Each risks one unit, split evenly over its tickets, so missing a leg or two can still pay. A round robin counts as a win when its tickets net a profit. Recorded separately from the parlays.

Round robins · 1u each, split over the tickets
Round robinW–LUnitsROIPending
5-pick1–2-0.49-16.3%
7-pick0–2-1.27-63.5%
All round robins1–4-1.76-35.2%

The daily brief

Every morning: the day's model card for CFB and MLB — picks, the number behind each one, and the running record. No hype, no locks.

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