Straight from cfb_ledger.csv and
mlb_ledger.csv — the same files the daily brief writes
to. Rebuilt September 11, 2026. Win% and ROI exclude pushes; ROI is units won per
unit risked. MLB figures are the published card only; picks the
model flags as implausible are tracked separately and left out here.
| Segment | W–L | Win % | Units | ROI | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ML | 9–7 | 56% | +1.79 | +11.2% | 2 |
| Spread | 27–13 | 68% | +9.73 | +24.3% | 1 |
| Total | 14–17–4 | 45% | -3.60 | -11.6% | 2 |
| Claimed edge | Picks | W–L | Win % | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-4% | — | |||
| 4-6% | 38 | 25–12 | 68% | +9.18 |
| 6-8% | 47 | 23–21–2 | 52% | +0.99 |
| 8-10% | 5 | 1–3–1 | 25% | -2.12 |
| 10-15% | 2 | 1–1–1 | 50% | -0.13 |
| 15%+ | — |
| Month | W–L | Win % | Units | Running | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | 9–8 | 53% | -0.98 | -0.98 | |
| Sep 2026 | 41–29–4 | 59% | +8.90 | +7.92 | 5 |
| Segment | W–L | Win % | Units | ROI | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | 11–9 | 55% | -0.05 | -0.3% | 3 |
| Total | 16–15 | 52% | +0.73 | +2.4% |
| Claimed edge | Picks | W–L | Win % | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3% | — | |||
| 3-5% | 2 | 2–0 | 100% | +1.90 |
| 5-7% | — | |||
| 7-10% | 3 | 1–2 | 33% | -1.15 |
| 10-15% | 12 | 4–8 | 33% | -5.31 |
| 15%+ | 1 | 1–0 | 100% | +0.93 |
| Month | W–L | Win % | Units | Running | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | 12–9 | 57% | +1.55 | +1.55 | 3 |
| Sep 2026 | 15–15 | 50% | -0.87 | +0.68 |
A 3, 4 and 5-leg card each day, built from that day's published picks — highest model win probability first, one leg per game. Flat one unit each.
| Card | W–L | Hit % | Units | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-leg | 0–1 | 0% | -1.00 | 1 |
| 4-leg | 0–1 | 0% | -1.00 | 1 |
| 5-leg | 0–1 | 0% | -1.00 | |
| All parlays | 0–3 | 0% | -3.00 | 2 |
Every morning: the day's model card for CFB and MLB — picks, the number behind each one, and the running record. No hype, no locks.
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